FuelLink Intelligenceas of Jul 2026

Sufficiency radar

Sufficiency is the regulator's answer to one question: if supply stopped tomorrow, how many days of stock does Nigeria hold? It is the single best early-warning number in the downstream sector — and it justifies itself during every shock.

Source: NMDPRA fact sheets — National Fuel Sufficiency block

PMS — days

22.4

incl. DPRP stock

AGO — days

46.5

diesel

ATK — days

58.6

aviation turbine (kerosene)

LPG — days

16.3

cooking gas — the tightest product

Days of national stock, Oct 2025 → Jul 2026

LPG never leaves the danger zone: 5–22 days across the whole window, vs 11–33 for PMS.

Basis change matters. From Feb 2026 the published sufficiency includes gross PMS stock at the Dangote refinery (per sheet note); Dec 2025 and Jan 2026 excluded it. Compare across that boundary with care — a jump may be stock basis, not new barrels.

Oct 2025 sheet quirk: two sufficiency blocks were printed ( “Fuel Sufficiency Levels” 14/41/18/4 and “National Fuel Sufficiency” 11/38/15/5). The national block is used, consistently across months.

Consumption vs NMDPRA 2026 daily demand benchmark

PMS (ML/d)

35.7

benchmark 50 · 71% of benchmark derived (−14.3)

AGO (ML/d)

14.7

benchmark 14 · 105% of benchmark derived (+0.7)

ATK (ML/d)

1.7

benchmark 3 · 57% of benchmark derived (−1.3)

LPG (kt/d)

4.4

benchmark 3.9 · 113% of benchmark derived (+0.5)

Jul 2026 consumption is down across the board vs the Oct 2025 peak (PMS 56.7 → 35.7 ML/d) — the holiday-season dip shows up first in sufficiency, then in price.