The Lomé Index
The strangest data pattern in the Dangote era: fuel leaving Nigeria, landing in Togo, and coming back on Nigerian customs papers as an 'import'. It distorts import statistics, trade policy, and anyone's dashboard that reads them naively.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights, via MEMAN industry webinar (2026)
The Lomé paradox
An estimated 70–80% of Nigeria's waterborne fuel 'imports' in Mar–May 2026 were Dangote Refinery product shipped out via Lomé (Togo) and re-imported into Lagos — circular trade driven by FX structure, pricing and port capacity.
Jet exports — May 2026
476,099 MT
Jet export surge — Apr 2026
+770%
Top jet destination
Europe
NBS Q1 2026 product exports
₦877.2B
PMS import receipts vs DPRP product exports (2026)
ML/day. Import receipts are NMDPRA fact-sheet figures; export volumes are DPRP as reported. Watch April: 17.1 ML/day of PMS leaving while 3.7 ML/day of PMS “arrives”.
NBS foreign trade — Q1 2026 product exports
| Product | Destination | ₦ billion |
|---|---|---|
| Petroleum (gas oil / AGO) | All destinations | 278.36 |
| Jet fuel (ATK) | All destinations | 273.18 |
| Crude oil | All destinations | 220.14 |
| Petrol (PMS) | Togo | 105.5 |
| 4-product total | 877.18 | |
Source: Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, foreign trade statistics Q1 2026 (as reported)
Other reported destinations: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana, Togo, Angola, South Africa, Europe.
What this means for the market
- 1.“Import” statistics overstate foreign supply. A depot or marketer deciding on landed-cost models needs origin-aware flows — this index is the start of that.
- 2.Export-eligible volumes (PMS, AGO, ATK, jet) are a real, growing trading book. Jet alone moved 476,099 MT in May 2026.
- 3.Corridors — Lomé, Cotonou, Cameroun, and jet lanes to Europe — are where pricing power actually forms. FuelLink's Phase 3 trade desk is built on these flows.