Arbitrage signals
What the data is telling you right now: spreads, wedges, and structural gaps computed from the sourced datasets. Every signal shows its arithmetic and its source. These are observations, not offers.
Gantry → pump spread (Lagos)
derived₦109.05 – ₦209.05 /L
Apr 2026: NMDPRA indicative Lagos pump price vs the DPRP ex-gantry band. This is the total economics of getting a litre from the refinery to the city — trucking, storage, working capital and margin all fit inside it.
Source: NMDPRA fact sheet (Apr 2026) + DPRP ex-gantry as reported
State-to-state wedge (Apr 2026)
derived₦100 /L
Highest average actual: Maiduguri (1,371.5). Lowest: Lagos (1,271.5). The north premium persists even after the 2026 corrections — logistics, not the barrel, is the price.
Source: NMDPRA fact sheet (Apr 2026)
LPG structural deficit (2026)
derived~150–250k t/yr gap
Demand 1.8M t vs supply 1.55–1.65M t, with a national buffer of only 5 days. Tight supply + domestic-first policy = the clearest structural squeeze in the sector.
Source: NUPRC/NALPGAM 2026 outlook & NMDPRA sufficiency, as reported
Jet spread — Abuja (ABV)
derived₦960 /L
18+ jet marketers quoting ₦1,190 to ₦2,150 at the same airport in 2026. Wide, documented dispersion at a single point of sale is the arbitrage in one line.
Source: AirInsight / ThisDay (2026) — 18+ jet marketers quoting wide per-airport spreads
Jet export momentum
+770% YoY (Apr)
April 2026 jet exports ran ~158,000 bpd with Europe the largest destination; May volume was 476,099 MT. A fast-forming export book that most dashboards don't track.
Source: DPRP export volumes (May 2026); S&P Global Commodity Insights via MEMAN (Apr 2026 jet export surge ~+770% to ~158k bpd; Europe largest destination)
PMS 'import' receipts swing
24.8 → 18.1 ML/d
NMDPRA import receipts: 24.8 ML/d (Jan) → 3.0 (Feb) → 18.1 (Jun). With 70–80% of waterborne 'imports' in Mar–May traced to DPRP product via Lomé, this series is as much an export mirror as an import series.
Source: NMDPRA fact sheets + S&P Global via MEMAN
Price rebound after correction
derived+₦155 /L
NNPC basis hit ₦1,110 in July; Lagos indicative was already ₦1,265 in early August. A ~₦155/L re-pricing inside weeks — the kind of move a priced-in position needs to be ready for.
Source: NNPC revisions + NMDPRA indicative (as reported)
Sufficiency watch level
22.4 days PMS
Jul 2026 PMS sufficiency 22.4 days (incl. DPRP) vs 50 ML/d benchmark consumption. Below 14 days is where policy responses historically begin.
Source: NMDPRA fact sheet (Jul 2026)