Monthly reportdeterministic · NMDPRA-sourced

Nigeria fuel sector in numbers — May 2026

Dangote refinery ran at 101.25% of installed capacity (+2.1 pts MoM). National PMS consumption was 46.3 ML/day — 93% of the NMDPRA 2026 benchmark of 50 ML/day (derived). Full breakdown of Nigeria's downstream sector from the NMDPRA fact sheet.

Generated 2026-09-20 from the NMDPRA fact sheet for May 2026.

This month in numbers

Dangote refinery ran at 101.25% of installed capacity (+2.1 pts MoM).
National PMS consumption was 46.3 ML/day — 93% of the NMDPRA 2026 benchmark of 50 ML/day (derived).
PMS stock sufficiency: 16 days including Dangote refinery stock.
PMS import receipts: 5.9 ML/day (+2.2 ML/day MoM).
National gas supply: 4.984 Bscf/day.
LPG remains the tightest product: 11 days of national stock.

Refinery output — Dangote (DPRP)

Indicator	2026-05
Utilization	101.25%
Peak utilization	—
PMS production	44.7
PMS domestic supply	41.5
PMS exports	—
AGO production	24.5
AGO domestic supply	18.2
AGO exports	6.5
ATK production	21.9
ATK domestic supply	2.8
ATK exports	17.5
Modular refineries — AGO domestic	—

Average daily, ML/day unless noted. Source: NMDPRA fact sheet.

Supply & consumption vs regulator benchmarks

Product	Consumption	Supply (total)	Benchmark
PMS	46.3 ML/d	47.4 ML/d	50 ML/d
AGO	16 ML/d	18.8 ML/d	14 ML/d
ATK	3.1 ML/d	3.6 ML/d	3 ML/d
LPG	4.5 kt/d	4.1 kt/d	3.9 kt/d

NMDPRA 2026 daily demand benchmarks shown for reference.

National fuel sufficiency (days of stock)

Product	Days	vs previous month
PMS	16	(−1.7 days MoM)
AGO	31	(−8 days MoM)
ATK	94	(+24 days MoM)
LPG	11	(−2 days MoM)

Days the country could coast on existing national stock at the average daily consumption rate.

Includes gross PMS stock at the Dangote refinery (per sheet note). From February 2026 the published basis includes DPRP stock; earlier months exclude it — compare across that boundary with care.

Gas sector

Total gas supplied: 4.984 Bscf/day.
NLNG: 2.851 Bscf/day.
Domestic: 2.133 Bscf/day.
Sectoral split — power 0.557, commercial 0.51, industries 0.635 Bscf/day.

LPG retail prices

LPG national retail range: ₦1,100–₦1,800/kg.

Trade flows & the Lomé question

PMS import receipts: 5.9 ML/day (NMDPRA).
DPRP product exports: AGO 6.5, ATK 17.5 ML/day.
Context: S&P Global Commodity Insights (via MEMAN) estimated 70–80% of Nigeria's waterborne fuel "imports" in this period were DPRP product routed via Lomé, Togo.

Sources & method

Every figure in this report is a value published by NMDPRA in the fact sheet above or an attributed market source. Values NMDPRA did not report render as “not reported” (shown as —). Figures labelled “derived” are arithmetic over published values (e.g. month-on-month changes, share of benchmark). This report is generated automatically and is informational; it is not trading advice.

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